A critical challenge for restoration in a changing climate is selecting source material that is both genetically diverse and well-suited to future conditions. While the theoretical basis for climate-adjusted provenancing is strong, real-world implementation across taxa and ecosystems remains constrained by gaps in data, resourcing, and decision-support tools. To help address this, we developed Reef Adapt (www.reefadapt.org), a globally applicable and expandable web platform that integrates genomic, biophysical, and environmental prediction data to support restoration and assisted gene flow planning in marine ecosystems.

Reef Adapt generates site-specific maps that identify potential donor populations suited to a user-defined restoration site under both current and future climates. We demonstrate its functionality across four contrasting marine taxa—two coral species (Pocillopora damicornis, Acropora kenti) and two habitat-forming seaweeds (Phyllospora comosa, Ecklonia radiata)—highlighting the practical use of genomic offset modelling, trait-based filters, and user-defined priorities in guiding restoration decisions.

Yet the development of Reef Adapt has also revealed key tensions: How do we build tools that remain flexible across species with divergent life histories, ploidy levels, and dispersal modes? How do we accommodate different restoration cultures, from coral reef nurseries to kelp aquaculture? And what lessons might this marine-focused tool offer to broader efforts to coordinate cross-ecosystem provenance strategies?

This talk will outline both the opportunities and the challenges in developing decision-support tools that span taxa, regions, and user expertise. I argue that to scale climate-adjusted provenancing into mainstream practice, we need not just more data—but shared frameworks, open tools, and cross-sector collaboration. These insights contribute to the growing dialogue on building national provenancing guidelines that bridge marine and terrestrial systems, and centre restoration success in an era of rapid change.

Climate change poses a major threat to global ecosystems and biodiversity, including revegetation efforts. Mine closure planning is increasingly recognising this risk and the potential failure of biodiversity revegetation to meet closure standards. Proposed alternative provenancing strategies seek to enhance revegetation outcomes under changing conditions by leveraging intraspecific genetic variation. However, few have been tested for effectiveness in the field. Here, we present outcomes from a national-scale, research-industry-government collaboration addressing this knowledge gap. Part of the Cooperative Research Centre for Transformations in Mining Economies (CRC TiME), this project established a network of experimental revegetation plantings at mine sites across Australia. This network tested the effectiveness of local (business as usual) vs climate-adapted seed sourcing strategies on overall revegetation outcomes across multiple ecosystems and mining contexts. We demonstrate the power of an experimental network, presenting early data of the effect of provenancing strategies on above ground vegetation and soil microbiome at the site and network level. Furthermore, we show how such network-scale data could contribute to an evidence-based framework for supporting provenancing strategy selection that confers greater climate resilience. These outcomes aim to help guide effective mine closure and reduce the risk of post-mine revegetation failure, now and under future changes.

Climate change is causing widespread habitat deterioration and destruction and presents one of the biggest threats to species and global ecological function. Underwater kelp forests underpin fisheries and vast economic values on temperate coasts but are declining due to climate change. There is an urgent need to develop novel and proactive solutions to combat, reverse and prevent this habitat loss. Using 2 species of kelp from Australia as examples, I will discuss how genomic data is providing the evidence we need to assess vulnerability of kelp forests and “future-proof” management and restoration under climate change. By identifying heritable genetic variation in thermal tolerance, we have identified target populations and individuals that could be used in assisted adaptation and restoration actions to boost resilience to future climate change.

Seagrasses are crucial habitat-forming species that contribute to coastal and estuarine ecosystem health. The genetic diversity of seagrass meadows underpins their resilience and adaptive capacity to environmental change. The long-term success of restoration strategies must account for the genetic structure of source populations. Posidonia australis, endemic to temperate Australia, has experienced widespread decline and is listed as endangered in several NSW estuaries. Restoration is increasingly used to recover lost meadows, though efforts remain limited in scale and constrained by degraded donor sites and low natural recruitment. In NSW, restoration of P. australis relies primarily on naturally detached beach cast shoots. The fine-scale genetic structure of populations remain poorly understood, limiting the ability to match source material to local conditions. This study assessed patterns of genetic diversity and structure within and among four NSW estuaries across ~570 km and 4.7º in latitude: Wallis Lake, Pittwater, Port Hacking, and Merimbula Lake. We genotyped 460 samples collected from multiple sites per estuary, with individuals spaced 15–20 m apart to capture fine-scale spatial structure across gradients in depth, salinity, and temperature. Genotyping was performed using SNP markers (DArTseq), alongside environmental and morphological observations. Detached beach cast shoots collected from estuarine shorelines were also genotyped and compared to nearby meadows. Preliminary results show clear genetic differentiation among estuaries and structure within some estuaries. Genotypic diversity also varied, with some sites dominated by a few clones and others exhibiting high clonal richness. These findings suggest previously unrecognised spatial genetic structure relevant to restoration planning. Most detached fragments were locally sourced, but their genetic similarity to nearby meadows varied across sites. Identifying likely source areas can improve provenance matching and help refine collection practices. This project addresses challenges in marine restoration and explores solutions to enhance efforts and ensure continued ecosystem service provision.

Climate change is the single largest threat to maintaining global biodiversity and ecosystem function. Rising ocean temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events threaten our marine ecosystems in different ways. Lower latitude populations (of temperate species) are being impacted as tropical species shift polewards, creating novel ecosystems as different species come into contact. These populations also tend to have lower levels of genetic diversity and be poorly connected, yet they may be locally adapted to warmer environments. Other populations may be impacted by intense rainfall which changes salinity and light levels within rivers and estuaries. Restoration of impacted seagrass meadows typically uses local plant material (cuttings/seed/seedlings), often in the absence of information on genetic diversity, connectivity with other populations, and local adaptation. However, this conservative approach may not be appropriate to ensure future restoration success in our changing climate, as large, long-lived temperate seagrasses, Posidonia spp., can take decades to restore. The use of local plants may be viewed as a high-risk option in warming waters. Posidonia meadows are currently growing in temperatures below their thermal optima, so may be able to tolerate future projected temperatures up to a point. I use three case studies from Australian waters to show how we are using genomic information to understand the impacts of climate stressors and how we can improve future restoration outcomes. Conservation of existing fragmented, lower latitude meadows containing warmer-adapted genotypes will be critical for sourcing plant materials as a viable strategy for restoration of impacted higher latitude meadows.

Coral reefs face the immense challenge of withstanding climate change. Fortunately, reef-building corals on the Great Barrier Reef harbour an innate resilience that is rooted in the genetic diversity within and among populations and species. Given time, natural selection can act on genetic diversity to drive adaptation and support species persistence. However, the rate of rising sea surface temperatures and increasing frequency and intensity of summer heat waves could outpace natural rates of adaptation. Breeding programs offer a strategy to enhance coral resilience by targeting standing genetic diversity to produce climate-resilient stock for reef restoration, although they must be conducted in conjunction with actions against the root causes of reef degradation. Boundaries among coral species are semipermeable, enabling targeted crosses within populations, among populations, and—in some cases—across species. At one end of the spectrum, selective breeding of heat-resilient broodstock within populations has been proposed as a tool for generating enhanced stock. Our results demonstrate that, while selective breeding can enhance coral heat tolerance, its effectiveness is limited by challenges related to the polygenic and multi-trait nature of heat tolerance. Alternatively, climate-adjusted provenancing guided by reef thermal histories has enhanced coral heat tolerance compared to controls from cooler, candidate recipient reefs. However, the performance of juveniles sourced from warmer reefs is often highly variable. We propose incorporating population genetic data into provenancing strategies to improve their effectiveness. Finally, crossing corals across species boundaries can generate novel genetic variation that confers adaptive capacity to coral hybrids. Interspecific hybridisation experiments have demonstrated some enhancement and a lack of outbreeding depression in F1 and early life stage F2 hybrids; however, outstanding questions remain regarding the fitness of later generation hybrids. Across these options, we emphasise the importance of maintaining genetic diversity within populations whilst striving to increase the frequency of heat tolerance-conferring alleles.

Coral reefs are invaluable ecosystems that support marine biodiversity, protect coastlines, sustain fisheries and tourism, and hold deep cultural significance. The genetic diversity of coral populations underpins their capacity to adapt to environmental change. Higher genetic diversity increases the likelihood that some individuals possess traits that confer tolerance to stress, making it crucial for long-term reef resilience under a changing climate. However, increasingly frequent and severe marine heatwaves are degrading coral reefs and can reduce genetic diversity, threatening their persistence. To counteract this loss, restoration methods aim to generate offspring with greater resilience to environmental stress. Yet, the optimal coral breeding strategy for generating resilient stock remains unclear, and not considering genetic diversity in breeding designs may compromise adaptive potential, leading to restoration failures. This PhD project primarily investigates how the number of parental colonies used in breeding may influence the genetic diversity and field performance of offspring, with the goal of providing evidence-based recommendations for coral breeding programs. Offspring produced from low (8N), medium (14N) and high (24N) numbers of broodstock were deployed across three reef environments (lagoon, flank and back reef). Survivorship and phenotypic traits were monitored over 18 months, with preliminary results revealing no significant differences in survival among offspring groups within each of the reef environments, by later timepoints. Upcoming genetic analyses using reduced-representation sequencing of offspring will assess whether differences in genetic diversity and signals of selection exist among groups and environments. Using whole-genome sequencing and phenotypic data from the broodstock, we further seek to identify broodstock genotypic and phenotypic traits that may independently predict offspring fitness. This research will inform domestic and international coral restoration efforts aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity and resilience of reef-building corals under increasing climate pressure.